Wednesday, April 30, 2014

New paper finds solar activity related to the polar vortex & jet stream variability

A paper published today in the Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres finds a link between solar cycles, the natural quasi-biennial oscillation [QBO], and the late winter polar vortex. The authors use ozone as a marker of "modulations of the winter Arctic stratosphere by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the solar cycle. It is found that both the QBO and solar forcing in low latitudes can perturb the late winter polar vortex, likely via planetary wave divergence, causing an early breakdown of the vortex in the form of Stratospheric Sudden Warming [SSW]." The QBO and Sudden Stratospheric Warmings have in turn been linked to solar activity, suggesting that the Sun could be the ultimate source of polar vortex/jet stream blocking variability. 

Jet stream dips of the polar vortex were responsible for the record-breaking cold US winter this year, which warmist Jennifer Francis desperately tries to blame on man, but this paper and many others suggest the jet stream dips were instead related to natural & solar variability.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Solar Cycle Influences on Winter Arctic Total Ozone

King-Fai Li Ka-Kit Tung

The total column ozone (TCO) observed from satellites and assimilated in the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) since 1979 is used as an atmospheric tracer to study the modulations of the winter Arctic stratosphere by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the solar cycle. It is found that both the QBO and solar forcing in low latitudes can perturb the late winter polar vortex, likely via planetary wave divergence, causing an early breakdown of the vortex in the form of Stratospheric Sudden Warming. As a result, TCO within the vortex in late winter can increase by ~60 DU during either a solar maximum or an easterly phase of the QBO, or both, relative to the least perturbed state when the solar cycle is minimum and the QBO is in the westerly phase. In addition, from the solar maximum to solar minimum during the QBO easterly phase, the change in TCO is found to be statistically insignificant. Therefore, the ‘reversal’ of the Holton–Tan effect, reported in some previous studies using lower stratospheric temperature, is not evident in the TCO behavior of both observation and assimilation.

3 comments:

  1. The Science debate has evolved and expanded into a serious threat to society, without the statesmanship needed to resolve and end the threat.

    It is time to accept Reality: Many fields of science were compromised after 1945 - astronomy, astrophysics, climatology, cosmology, . . . nuclear, particle, planetary, solar, theoretical physics, etc.

    1. FEAR of nuclear annihilation drove this alliance of scientists and world leaders to deceive the public in 1945.

    2. FEAR of retaliation now prevents them from admitting the structure of post-1945 government science was bent to hide the source of energy in cores of:

    1. Heavy atoms like Uranium
    2. Some planets like Jupiter
    3. Ordinary stars like the Sun
    4. Galaxies like the Milky Way


    Deniers cannot be defeated but they cannot win the battle.

    World leaders and their army of scientists cannot be defeated and they cannot win the war without destroying large segments of society and perhaps themselves.

    These conclusions are based on nine pages of precise experimental data from world's top labs. See data on pages 19-27:

    “A Journey to the Core of the Sun – Chapter 2: Acceptance of Reality"

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Chapter_2.pdf

    Can WE solve this dilemma?

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  2. A number of us have been suggesting just such a link for years.

    “The top down solar effect on the jets is provided via the size and intensity of the
    atmospheric polar vortices, one at each pole.
    That size and intensity is set by the height of the tropopause at the poles. When
    the tropopause rises the polar vortex becomes deeper but less extensive at the
    surface (jets shift poleward). When the tropopause at the poles falls the polar
    vortex becomes shallower but more extensive at the surface (jets shift
    equatorward).”

    25th October 2010

    Stephen Wilde

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, thanks, good to see this finally in the published literature.

      Delete